School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #1
​Laying the Foundation, Part 1
Understanding that large ships can’t turn quickly is a common analogy used by planning consultants, warning of dire consequences of investing too little time – bad plans and worse outcomes.  Tony Lucca sings this refrain in True Story: “Just hold on tight with all of your might, it takes the time it takes to get it right.” Both put exclamation marks on a precious resource within the control of school leaders – taking the time it takes to get it right!

So, how much time is enough? Best practice would recommend 15 – 18 months. The master plan should be research-based, strategic, and include specific tasks, timelines and responsibilities.  And remember, it’s not a plan unless either on paper or your hard drive.  Fifteen to eighteen months provide time to develop and then execute the plan – time to turn the ship in a direction that moves taxpayers from where they are to where they need to be to vote “yes” to higher taxes on election day. 

Planning and executing a successful school tax election is both hard and long. Your leadership team needs to determine who internally will have primary responsibility. When superintendents assume the role of general, other leadership responsibilities need to be delegated. Likewise, if the leadership role is assigned to a subordinate, superintendents still need to stay engaged since the outcome of the tax election will be on their watch. In laying this foundation for success, remember Benjamin Franklin’s forewarning: “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!"

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Learn More About Dr. Lifto
Dr. Don Lifto held positions in Minnesota’s public schools for 33 years, the last 25 as a superintendent in rural, suburban, and intermediate districts.  During his superintendency, he brought 12 operating or bond proposals forward to the public, 10 of which passed. Lifto completed his Ph.D. at the University of Minnesota with a dissertation focused on factors associated with successful and unsuccessful school referenda. Since 2006 he has consulted with school districts on referendum planning and feasibility surveys with Springsted, Baker Tilly, Morris Leatherman, and School Election Strategies. His third book on referendum planning was coauthored with Barb Nicol and can be found here: https://bit.ly/3dBqEzb

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#1 Laying the Foundation, part 1

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #1
​Laying the Foundation, Part 1 (published 10/06/22)
Understanding that large ships can’t turn quickly is a common analogy used by planning consultants, warning of dire consequences of investing too little time – bad plans and worse outcomes.  Tony Lucca sings this refrain in True Story: “Just hold on tight with all of your might, it takes the time it takes to get it right.” Both put exclamation marks on a precious resource within the control of school leaders – taking the time it takes to get it right!

So, how much time is enough? Best practice would recommend 15 – 18 months. The master plan should be research-based, strategic, and include specific tasks, timelines and responsibilities.  And remember, it’s not a plan unless either on paper or your hard drive.  Fifteen to eighteen months provide time to develop and then execute the plan – time to turn the ship in a direction that moves taxpayers from where they are to where they need to be to vote “yes” to higher taxes on election day. 

Planning and executing a successful school tax election is both hard and long. Your leadership team needs to determine who internally will have primary responsibility. When superintendents assume the role of general, other leadership responsibilities need to be delegated. Likewise, if the leadership role is assigned to a subordinate, superintendents still need to stay engaged since the outcome of the tax election will be on their watch. In laying this foundation for success, remember Benjamin Franklin’s forewarning: “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!"

#2 Laying the Foundation, Part 2

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #2
​Laying the Foundation, Part 2 (published 11/02/22)
​Last month’s “Laying the Foundation” spotlighted a Tony Luca song, “Just hold on tight with all your might, it takes the time it takes to get it right.”  Starting your school tax election planning 15 – 18 months early provides time for key strategies that will make a difference on election day. 
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Conducting a communication audit is a high-return strategy. The National School Public Relations Association recommends taking a “…snapshot of your current communication efforts, the climate for communication, the issues and image perceptions you are facing, and the communication needs of target audiences.”  The scope of the audit includes everything from your logo and tagline to print and electronic communications to social media and community engagement. A top-notch communication system is foundational in support of a successful tax election. For information go to:  https://www.nspra.org/nspra-communication-audits.

A second audit focuses on dusting off (and tweaking as needed) key school board policies impacting school tax elections. Most important is your directory information policy. Some school districts identify parents’ names, addresses, and phone numbers as public data, which anyone can access (e.g., vote “yes” committee). Others restrict one or more of these important contact fields. Other policies to review include use of buildings and grounds (Can a vote “yes” committee have a table at the football game?), access to staff mailboxes, and use of a district’s auto dialing system.

A key takeaway for both audits is “earlier is better” – get them done before the spotlight is on your ballot proposal and election day.

#3 Budget Advisory Committee (BAC)

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #3
​Budget Advisory Committee (BAC) (published 12/01/22)

In the words of Charles Edwards: “The budget evolved from a management tool into an obstacle to management.”  How true within the context of public school funding – a menagerie of complex local, state, and federal revenue sources not to be out done by legalistic and restrictive budget accounting on the expenditure side.  In the context of public opinion about school budgets and tax elections, the challenge is further encumbered by mostly negative press about public schools and finances.

Another chapter in the “start planning early” school tax election manual suggests forming a Budget Advisory Committee to educate community members when important fiscal decisions need to be made. Advocates who can engage with fellow citizens, explain financial realities in common language, and advocate for solutions including school tax elections. The mission of a typical BAC would “advise, support and make recommendations to management on policies and practices related to budgets, financial priorities and the operation of the school system.”

If your BAC is going to be a resource and not an obstacle, I offer some tips and guardrails to guide the launch:

• Approach BAC as a long-range strategy
• 8 – 10 members is an effective working group
• Look for members who are well known and respected within the community
• Address diversity including gender, age, occupation, politics, geography, and race/ethnicity
• Establish staggered 3-year terms broadening participation over time and expanding the cadre of informed residents
• Remember…if it was a good idea before your school tax election, it better be a good idea after.

#4 Misery Index

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #4
​Misery Index (published 01/05/23)

Economist Arthur “Art” Okun, former Yale professor and Chairman of Economic Advisors in the late 1960’s, coined the tagline, “Misery Index” to measure broad community sentiment about the state of the economy and its threat (real or perceived) to our collective pocketbooks. To compute Okun’s Misery Index add the current inflation and unemployment rates at a moment in time. When the sum total hits 10% or higher misery abounds.

Flash  back to June of 2022…inflation rate hits 9.1% and national unemployment rate stands at 3.6% for a total of 12.7%. Translation? Give me a M…Give me an I…Give me a S…Give me an E…Give me a R…Give me a Y…What does it spell? MISERY!

Misery Index falls in the category of non-strategic factors affecting the outcome of school tax elections. It has obvious impact but is not within our control. That said, when high a Misery Index abounds, there the two key considerations that beg for your attention:

1. Can the tax election wait for better economic times? (Wait if you can!)
2. Can’t wait? Then it is even more important to carefully align content and cost of your ballot proposal with the community’s values and willingness to pay. One tool to guide that decision is a scientific, random-sample feasibility survey.

When the Misery Index is high it is critical that school leaders muster what it takes to plan and deliver an “A+” campaign and by so doing hopefully avoid a more poignant form of misery on Election Day.
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#5 Culture Wars and Split School Board

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #5
Culture Wars and Split School Boards
 
The group Bonds for the Win organizes parents challenging school boards on controversial topics ranging from mask mandates to critical race theory to sex education. They claim that when school board decisions violate oaths of office parents are entitled to compensation from what are called surety bonds. Often spawned during the 2020 presidential election, Bonds for the Win and other oppositional groups initially focused on pandemic restrictions.
As culture wars became increasingly local, Ballotpedia reported that the percentage of contested school board elections doubled from 2018 to 2021. Increasingly, slates of like-minded citizens run for school boards often resulting in deeply divided school boards. So, are split boards predictive of the passage rates of school tax elections? And what can be done when school boards are deeply divided when planning a tax election?
The first question is unfortunately easily answered:  split school boards are positively correlated with unsuccessful school referenda. When faced with this challenge, there are two strategies to consider:

1. Wait if you can – delaying the tax election provides time to win over oppositional board members or for composition of the school board to change.
2. Can’t wait? – recruit well-known, respected community members to publicly counter the oppositional school board members. (better than other school board members doing it)

More and deeper split school boards are unfortunately the short-term reality. When it comes to winning school tax elections, avoid split board decisions when you can and be strategic with responding to oppositional board members when you can’t.

#6 Managing Critical Events

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #6
Managing Critical Events
 
According to everbridge, “a critical event is a disruptive incident posing serious risk or threat to assets or people.” So, what does that have to do with postage meters and school tax elections? Keep reading….
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While a superintendent running a high-stakes tax election, I was relieved to sense the proverbial white flag of a car race – one lap to our finish line for a campaign that had been challenging but mostly clicking on all cylinders. Late in the campaign we prepared the required taxpayer mailing, ran it through the postage meter, and dropped notices off at the post office.
Oops…48 hours later my phone starting ringing. Thousands of legal mailings had run through the meter programmed for one penny less than the required postage for a first-class mailing. Taxpayers had received the District’s legal notice for the tax election with one penny due noted on the outside of their envelopes.

Unfortunately, the stamp fiasco was not my only critical event related to tax elections. (but 250 words do not allow for more amusement) So what can school leaders do manage critical events? Three things:

• Build double-check systems into your planning to eliminate avoidable mistakes
• Anticipate potential critical events and prepare related contingency plans
• Build a “yes vote” target for your campaign that includes a buffer – using the car race analogy, a shock absorber to protect the campaign’s assets. If you think you need 10,000 “yes” votes to win, set a target to find 13,000.

​_ _ _ _ happens…be prepared!

#7 Leading the Parade

​School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #7
Leading the Parade
 
Ronald Reagan hit the nail on the head: “The greatest leader is not necessarily the one who does the greatest things. He [She] is the one that gets the people to do the greatest things.”

One challenging and complex leadership responsibility of a superintendent – early in the referendum planning – is to identify optimal roles of different individuals and groups across three interdependent dimensions: those internal under the roof; those external from the community; and the critically important coordination between the two.

Sorting out internal roles includes the school board, administration, and staff. Deciding what role each should play requires both boundaries and a realistic assessment of appropriate roles. Boundaries are the campaign’s guardrails – what internal groups can do based on state law and policy. Assessment requires an honest evaluation of how the community perceives internal groups. If teachers are consistently high ranked, they should play a prominent role. If the school board has been at the center of controversy collectively spinning its wheels, not so much.

Likewise for the community. Who are broadly respected and natural leaders? Does the face of the campaign represent racial, gender, age, and political diversity? Are folks from business, private schools, and faith communities at the campaign table?
Remember, just because you are the superintendent does not always mean your ideal role is to carry the campaign flag at the front the parade. Think of your role as a conductor of an orchestra – focused on recruiting great musicians and harmonizing all facets of the campaign.

#8 Right Thing at the Wrong Time

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #8
Right Thing at the Wrong Time?
 
Joshua Harris hit the nail on the head: “The right thing at the wrong time is the wrong thing.” So, what’s that got to do with winning school tax elections? Plenty.

A suburban district closed a community-based elementary school just months before proposing to raise property taxes to fund new and upgraded schools. A medium-sized rural district voted to change elementary school attendance boundaries during the summer before a high stakes vote seeking more operating funding. An urban school district passed controversial new high school start times six months before Election Day. What do these examples have in common? The timing of controversial decisions was too close to Election Day spawning organized opposition – all three tax elections fell short of the needed “yes” votes to win.

Extending the benefit of the doubt to all three schools districts accepts that they did the right thing for students, staff, and the community. But if the timing was bad, it was the wrong thing. Successful school tax elections require long planning calendars. Long enough in this context to place a buffer of time between predictably controversial decisions and when folks vote. This critical cushion of time can be either before or after the vote – if before enough time to heal and hopefully convince some residents that it was the right decision; if the buffer is after Election Day, act but not too quickly.

Bottom line:  Control what you can and strive to avoid controversy in the months leading up to a critical vote.

#9 Demographics of ScarcitY

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #9
Demographics of Scarcity
 
According to the U.S Census Bureau, the aging of baby boomers means that by 2030 there will be more folks over 65 years old (78 million) than the total number of school-age children (76.7 million) Unfortunately, the challenge extends beyond baby boomers – in the vast majority of school districts, parents represent only 15 – 25% of all registered voters.  Adding insult to injury, this algorithm of sparsity impacts tax elections in other impactful ways:  15 – 25% is the average voter turnout of 18 – 40-year old’s in special elections; and, typically 15 – 25% of voters will not support any tax increase no matter what the amount or the purpose.

These demographic realities emphasize the urgency of knowing your audience when planning a future tax election. Fortunately, school district leaders can now harness powerful commercial databases to “slice and dice” registered voters in the search for “yes” votes. My database of choice includes powerful information on registered voters such as phone numbers, age, gender, where folks live, household income, educational attainment, and race and ethnicity. Step 2 is to merge this commercial database with the name, address, and phone number of current parents. This approach allows the district to quantify and evaluate registered voters to identify potential pockets of support.
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The challenge for school leaders – in the context of the 15 – 25% reality – is to first quantify and understand the implications of scarcity and then harness winning strategies based on solid research and best practices. More on these strategies in future newsletters.

#10 What’s with Alumni Parents?

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #10
What’s with Alumni Parents?
 
Commencement exercises signal the end of an era for some high school parents, either because their gradate is an only child or youngest child. It is important to understand that perceptions of former parents, here labeled “alumni parents,” contrast sharply from current parents and residents who never had children enrolled. It behooves school leaders to better understand core perceptions of this demographic group and initiate planning to address them well before a future tax election.

My study of alumni parents began more than 20 years ago with a statewide survey of 380 registered voters. Half of the interviews were with current parents and half with alumni parents. The results of the survey were both challenging and surprising:

• Alumni parents vote more than the general public
• 40% of alumni parents are at least 65 and 30% are between 55 and 64
• Evaluating the direction of public schools, half of alumni parents 65+ said “right direction” while only 32% of alumni parents under 65 agreed
• Alumni parents under age 65 were more concerned about retirement than investing time and resources in public schools
• 65+ non-parents (never had a child in public schools) were more supportive than alumni parents between 55 – 65.

​The key takeaway is not to mistakenly assume that alumni parents who used to have children in your schools will automatically support your next school tax election. School leaders need to understand and engage with alumni parents as part of a long-range strategy before you need their support on election day.

#11 Timing Matters

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #11
Timing Matters

Joshua Harris got it right when he said, “The right thing at the wrong time is the wrong thing.” So, what does that have to do with school tax elections? Actually, quite a bit.  Case in point:  A Minnesota school district won a school tax election with 1569 “yes” votes. (57% margin) A few years later it lost with 2196 “yes” votes. The winning campaign occurred in an odd year with a low turnout. In the loss, folks voted in an even-year higher turnout environment.
In most states, school leaders have discretion to choose when to conduct their tax election. All alone on the ballot one can expect turnout in the 25 – 40% range. Even-year, non-presidential dates typically produce turnout between 50 – 65%. Districts on the ballot in presidential years can expect 60 – 75% turnout. So, what is the best timing for your school tax election?
Finding the right thing at the right time is driven by demographics of your registered voters. Public and commercial databases should be accessed to probe key questions before picking a date:

• Count of registered voters
• Expected turnout for dates under consideration
• Percentage of voters who are parents
• Breakdown of voters based on past voting frequency
• Breakdown of voters based on race/ethnicity
• Percentage of voters likely Democrats or leaning progressive as compared to Republicans or leaning conservative

Most urban districts will rely on large turnouts to win while more conservative suburban districts are more likely to score a victory in low turnout elections.

Timing matters!

#12 ​Predicting Turnout: Science or Art?

School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #12
Predicting Turnout: Science or Art?
 
In Mae Jemison’s words, the difference between science and art is “…not that they are different sides of the same coin even, or even different parts of the same continuum, but rather, they are manifestations of the same thing….”  Pretty sophisticated stuff for thinking about school tax elections! Although true, school leaders need to utilize both lenses to achieve more accurate turnout predictions.

The last newsletter (Timing Matters!) dug into typical turnout in different types of elections.  The key takeaway? Use your community’s demographics to determine the best timing to be on the ballot. As a follow-up, some related thoughts on how to use science and art to achieve more accurate turnout predictions.
The scientific lens encompasses two analytics. First, look at past school tax elections focusing on apples-to-apples turnout comparisons. (i.e., comparing turnout in 2015 to 2019 or 2016 versus 2020) Apples to apples is the key – comparing turnouts in 2017 to 2020 is meaningless. Second, use available databases to analyze how the registered voter counts have changed over time – growing or shrinking?

The art of turnout predictions considers other factors affecting participation. Will another jurisdiction place a proposal on the same ballot? (e.g., new jail) What is the climate in the school community, is the school board unified, do you have a history of organized opposition? All of these factors will likely increase turnout.
Harnessing both science and art – manifestations of the same thing – is the pathway to more accurate turnout predictions in school tax elections.

#13 Post-election Analysis (PEA)

School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #13
Post-election Analysis (PEA)
 
In promoting its former primetime hit “Crossing Jordan,” NBC touted Jill Hennessy was as “a sexy, smart and fearless medical examiner with a penchant for going beyond the call of duty to investigate crimes.”  Albeit not sexy, school leaders also need to be smart and thorough - in this context looking in their rearview mirrors at the examination tables of school tax elections past.
Too often this key strategic opportunity is squandered when school districts fail to collect and analyze data after a school tax election – equally important following successful or losing campaigns. The post-election analysis (PEA) essentially takes the form of a detailed analysis of turnout across multiple demographic characteristics:

• How did overall turnout compare to what was estimated pre-election?
• Did the advocacy campaign effectively influence the outcome?
• What percentage of parents voted?
• How did various demographic groups participate compared to their proportionate share of registered voters?
• To what extent did identified “yes” voters participate on Election Day?

A PEA is centrally a detailed profile of who showed up (and who didn’t) analyzed across multiple demographic characteristics of registered voters – a demographic picture of the win or loss.  A database of registered voters merged with pre-election campaign markers is the foundation for the study.
Like the medical examiner in “Crossing Jordan,” school leaders need to look back and piece together disparate clues about voter behavior, demographic characteristics, and turnout in the context of campaign advocacy.  Reconstructing this forensic puzzle provides the foundation for effective tax election planning moving forward.

#14 Q4C Quotient

School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #14
Q4C Quotient
 
In 1992, William Jefferson Clinton was propelled to the presidency largely because his advisers correctly identified the core issue. “It’s the economy, stupid.”  So, too, must school leaders understand that successful tax elections are fundamentally grounded in how the public rates the quality of its schools. In fact, your District’s Q4C quotient might be the most significant predictor of election success.
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The acronym Q4C was coined by William Morris and me nearly 20 years ago.  At the foundation of school tax election planning, this algorithm is expressed as Q4C = Quality Control + Customer-Commitment + Communications. Research suggests that the combined impact of these Q4C variables might drive up to 50% of tax election outcomes. Your Q4C quotient can be boiled down to nine key variables:

• Relentless focus on mission
• Culture of higher academic expectations
• Laser focus on basic skills mastery
• Extraordinary commitment to customer
• Multiple and continuous feedback loops
• Healthy relationship internally and with community
• Broad and meaningful community involvement
• Planning and execution at highest levels
• Outstanding and ongoing public relations

In a study done with Morris, a survey was designed to evaluate the relationship between quality perceptions by the public and successful tax elections. How the public evaluated its schools predicted 96% of the tax election outcomes. When more than 17% of survey respondents rated their public schools fair or poor, only 10% of tax elections passed.
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With an ongoing focus of Q4C firmly at the keel, school leaders have the foundation needed to build a winning campaign.

#15 Son of a Preacher Man

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #15
Son of a Preacher Man
 
The melodic verses of Dusty Springfield’s 1968 hit, “Son of a Preacher Man,” paint a musical picture of the object of Dusty’s attention. Her quest zeros in on the son of a preacher man. While there are other preachers and sons in town, Dusty’ focus is on Billy-Ray - a unique, one-of-a-kind young man. It’s not much of a stretch to use this recital to emphasize the importance of developing voter files and target structures.
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Parents of school-age kids make up only 15 – 25% of registered voters in most districts. This inconvenient truth makes it essential that school leaders identify and target enough voters likely to show up on Election Day and vote “yes.”  The first step is building a voter file is merging the database of current parents (name, address, and phone number) with the file of registered voters in the district. Registered voter files can be obtained from both public and commercial sources.
Step 2 merges commercial databases with this master voter file.  My databases of choice are L2 (demographic markers) and VAN. (predictive markers) L2 provides a wealth of demographic characteristics about registered voters (e.g., age, gender, household income, educational attainment, past voting frequency, and geographical location within school district) VAN is a predictive database that scores each registered voter based on their likelihood to support a progressive cause.

This target structure – informed by the results of a scientific, random-sample feasibility survey – mark the pathway to find and deliver enough “yes” voters to win on Election Day.

#16 Survey Methodology Matters

School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #16
Survey Methodology Matters!

Cartoon character Wizard of Id could have avoided his bad awful day by attending to methodology before his survey consultant proclaimed, “Your numbers are up the latest poll!” Wizard’s excitement was short-lived as the jester peeled back the onion on the data: “Lousy” went from 80 to 90 percent. Wise school leaders will heed this lesson when choosing the survey methodology for a future tax election.

Well-designed surveys provide vital information about support for the content and tax consequences of a future tax election, and there is a positive correlation between use of feasibility surveys and success on Election Day (conditional on using right methodology given the challenge) Two common types of surveys used to prepare for tax elections are opt-in and scientific, random-sample.

With opt-in voters choose (or choose not) to take your survey. Although expanding numbers of survey respondents, the American Association for Public Opinion Research states, “In self-selected or opt-in samples, respondents have selected themselves…meaning their answers may not be representative of the larger population.” Case in point: a recent opt-in survey estimated support at 61%. On Election Day the district lost 2:1. Problem? 78% of survey respondents were parents and 28% employees. 

Better choice? Use a scientific, random-sample survey. Again, AAPOR: “The major advantage of a probability-based sampling is that we can calculate how well the finding from the sample represents the total population.” Margins between impactful wins and devasting losses are too thin not to utilize the right survey methodology to measure tax election support.

#17 Hands on or Laissez-Faire?

School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #17
Hands on or Laissez-Faire?
 
Category: cinema. Toss-up question: What do the movies Magnificent 7, Dirty Dozen, and Ocean’s 11 have in common? 

Correct answer: The leading men were faced with daunting and seemingly impossible tasks. Their strategy? Recruit a hand-picked team perfectly equipped for challenges at hand. Their approach represents the antithesis of lasses-faire – to the contrary recruits were ideally matched to the tasks they faced. Bonus round:  What does this have to do with running school tax elections?

Hopefully, our movie trivia already flipped the switch to shine light on this leadership challenge. Unfortunately, school districts often fail to capitalize on this lesson and the significance of hands-on and strategic leadership in forming campaign committees. School leaders who find themselves standing on the auditorium stage talking to a group of potential volunteers and asking, “Who would like to volunteer to be a tri-chair of the school tax election campaign committee?” have missed the point and a one-time opportunity.

All advocacy campaigns have unique tasks ranging from fund raising to creating a website to recruiting and training door-knockers to organizing the GOTV drive. If the right people are identified and recruited to solicit campaign dollars, money will not be an issue. Ditto for all other campaign work unique to a successful school tax election. Like our movie action thrillers, ascertain who would be best for each unique job, figure out how to get them on board, and recruit one “ideal task performer” at a time. Form the perfect team for the challenge at hand!

#18 Endorsements Can Matter!

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #18
Endorsements Can Matter!
 
Andrew Yang expressed amazement that Jim Clyburn’s endorsement of Joe Biden was the most important factor influencing how 47% of South Carolina voters cast their ballot.  Endorsements act as “mental shortcuts” to help folks decide how to vote observed political writer Mark Travers. While school tax elections are a far cry from national politics, they are nonetheless political in nature and strategic endorsements can matter.

In recent years, a Big 10 football coach endorsed a school tax election in the community where he lived. Mayor Melvin Carter of St. Paul publicly endorsed the school district’s last tax election and served as the campaign’s co-chair. Headlines in Indiana touted Pete Buttigieg’s support for South Bend’s $220 million dollar referendum. While celebrity endorsements can be an asset, school leaders need to be strategic in who to ask based on unique circumstances. Case in point:  if two-thirds of your registered voters are Republican, seeking an endorsement from a prominent Democrat could easily backfire.

At the local level, support can come from non-celebrity but influential actors. One example was a school district running a tax election in a community with four Catholic schools. The head of these religious schools wrote a letter to the editor and recorded a video urging its parents to vote “yes.”  In another case, the campaign in a conservative suburban district road on the coattails of an endorsement of a businessman who was chair of the local Republican party. 
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Endorsements can matter when strategic and complimenting an effective overall campaign.

#19 ​Lessons from Bond Battlefield

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #19
Lessons from Bond Battlefield
 
“Divide and conquer” summons images of Roman chariots careening wedge-like through a legion of foot soldiers, or a cavalry separating enemy battalions from ammunition and supplies. In the context of school tax elections, this military strategy can manifest in the form of a split ballot. In some cases, ballot splitting decreases the “no” vote for Q1 thereby helping school districts deliver on its highest priority needs.

School tax elections face stratified electorates. At the poles are “boosters” (I’ll vote yes on anything!) and “nay-sayers.” (Tax increase over my dead body!)  The full spectrum of voters also includes folks in between these extremes – typically 30 – 50% – who are leaning “yes,” leaning “no,” or undecided. Two separate proposals decrease the cost of each ballot question lower than the price tag of a single question. When this strategy works it leverages additional support for Q1 because some voters likely programmed to cast a “no” vote if a single question ultimately vote “yes” on Q1 and “no” on Q2.

Scientific, random-sample surveys (Survey Methodology Matters! column) provide school leaders with needed data to answer key questions about the efficacy of two ballot proposals rather than one:

• Is the cost of the district’s proposal greater than the what the survey projects as feasible?
• Can the proposal be split between essential (Q1) and desirable (Q2)?
• Can the proposal be logically split? (can’t split a new high school into two questions!)

Lessons from the bond battlefield suggest that ballot splitting can sometimes be a pathway to success.

#20 ​Big 3: *Communications*, Canvassing & GOTV

​School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #20
Big 3: Communications, Canvassing & GOTV

Successful tax elections occur when stellar planning is paired with outstanding advocacy by the campaign. Winning campaigns must execute the “Big 3” at high levels: Communications, Canvassing, and GOTV. Outstanding communication from the district (information) and the campaign committee (advocacy) are essential. Advocates should evaluate their communications through the lens of 4C’s: clear, concise, consistent, and compelling.

Clear
Clarity is always important in school communications, but particularly in the context of tax elections. If folks are going to be willing to voluntarily raise their taxes, they need clearly understand the need and benefit. Focus on “barbershop language” - folks understand libraries but not so much media centers.

Concise
While some voters need long-winded and detailed narratives, most folks are busy and just want the facts. Concise descriptions of what is being asked for, why it is needed, and consequences of the election’s outcome should be explained in brief with links to read more about it.

Consistent
Consistency begins with coordination between the communications from the school district with advocacy messages from the campaign. Make sure that voters are reading and hearing consistent messages no matter what meeting they attend or how they receive their information.

Compelling
​Most voters require a convincing argument to voluntarily raise their taxes. Both informational and advocacy messages need to be compelling to secure voters’ support. “Our children don’t get a second chance to grow and learn in our public schools. Now is the time to invest in our children, schools, and community.”

Watch your 4C’s!

#21 Politics of Gender

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #21
Politics of Gender
 
A group of senior administrators in a suburban district were stumped by what they read. The district had conducted a scientific, random-sample phone survey to test community support for a future tax election.  One question in the survey asked residents:

“Would you be more likely or less likely to support a school operating referendum if you knew that some of the money would be used to improve instruction for students who were behind in reading achievement?”

In analyzing the demographic tables, one finding was “eye-popping.”  While 76% of women strongly supported this investment only 54% of men gave it a thumbs up – a startling 22% difference. “What the heck is going on here?” asked one shocked and dismayed administrator.

As ideas were exchanged, the focus turned to district advisory committees. A list was generated identifying more than a dozen active committees with over 100 members.  Guess what? Over 80% of the participants were women – so it was women who were primarily engaged and experiencing the positive results of their volunteer advocacy. The superintendent’s charge came quickly – the district would move towards gender balance on all advisory committees.
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While each school district is unique, the politics of gender consistently quantifies support for tax elections higher from women higher than men. A generous planning calendar for a future tax election provides the needed time to improve this gender calculus implementing effective long-term strategies. Get more men into your schools, engaged with administrators and teachers, and making a positive difference for kids.

#22 Big 3: Communications, *Canvassing*, and GOTV

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #22
Big 3:  Communications, Canvassing & GOTV
 
Successful school tax elections occur when stellar school district planning is paired with outstanding advocacy campaigns by parents and community members. Winning campaigns rely on executing the “Big 3” at high levels:  Communications, Canvassing, and GOTV.  According to Wikipedia, Canvassing is the “systematic initiation of direct contact with individuals to identify supporters, persuade the undecided, and expand registration of supporters.”  It is often characterized as the campaign’s “ground game.”

Canvassing is done through door-knocking, phone calls, texts, and campaign websites and is initiated two to three months before Election Day. So, who to contact? A previous newsletter (“Son of a Preacher Man”) focused on voter files and target structures – merging parent, voter, and commercial databases to create a master file for canvassing.  This target structure categorizes registered voters based on two characteristics:  likelihood to vote based on voting history; and likelihood to vote “yes” based on predictive databases and results of a scientific, random-sample survey.

Effective canvassing begins with Target 1 (frequent voters likely to vote “yes”) and then moves to Target 2. (second best group of voters) Volunteers works their way through each target until the campaign hits its “magic number” to win. It is recommended that this number be padded by 30% above how many “yes” votes actually needed to win on Election Day.

This canvassing ground game – the second of the “Big 3” – generates names, phone numbers and addresses needed to execute a successful GOTV campaign – engaging identified supporters to show up and cast their “yes” votes.

#23 BiG 3: Communications, Canvassing & *GOTV*

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #23
Big 3: Communications, Canvassing & GOTV
 
Successful tax elections occur when stellar planning is paired with outstanding advocacy by the campaign. Winning campaigns must execute the “Big 3” at high levels:  Communications, Canvassing, and GOTV.  Unfortunately, in many cases campaign leaders forget advice from their track coaches:  race through rather than to the finish line! Poor GOTV execution happens when campaign volunteers are depleted after months of work and/or when leadership lacks strategic knowledge and experience.
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Donald Green and Alan Gerber, authors of Get out the Vote:  How to Increase Voter Turnout, are seminal researchers of the efficacy of different GOTV strategies. Their studies over many decades quantify additional “yes” votes the campaign can produce for each application of a specific strategy. For example, it takes 189 leaflets dropped at the door to turn out one additional vote. Fortunately, there are more effective approaches than leaflets to incorporate in your GOTV plan.

Findings in brief from the authors to guide GOTV planning and execution:

• Door-to-door (face-to-face) contact is by far most effective. (one additional voter turns out for each 16 engagements)
• Authentic engagement (voter knows the campaign volunteer) is significantly more powerful than stranger contacts whether in person, by phone or email.
• Differentiate GOTV interventions commensurate with historical voting patterns. (Single male with poor historical voting record will need seven interventions while a parent who has voted in eight of the last nine elections needs only a reminder call.)

Word to the wise: sprint through the GOTV finish line with robust volunteers armed with research-based strategies.

#24 ​Back to the Well Too Often

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #24
Back to the Well Too Often
 
“Going back to the well too often” is a modern version of an ancient proverb with roots in the fourteenth century. As Thomas Fuller cautioned, “The pitcher that often goes to the well comes home broken at last.” 

This time-tested warning has implications when planning school tax elections. The takeaway for school leaders is understanding that there is an inverse relationship between frequency of school tax elections and success on election day – the shorter the time between your last referendum and your next, everything else being equal, the more likely you will lose.

So…how much time is too little time between tax elections? In the absence of unique statutory or “falling off the cliff” deadlines faced by the District, give your community at least a year between school tax elections. This recommendation is equally important after a win or a loss.
When a subsequent referendum is put before voters too soon, you’re likely to hear two resounding (and irritable) messages from your public:
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• “Didn’t we just do this?” (Note that you will hear this even if the last election was for operating money and the next is for buildings – most taxpayers lack sophistication to understand the difference.).
• “What about NO! don’t you understand? (When a forthcoming tax election follows closely after a failure).

As painful as it might be to wait, better to provide the needed time to evaluate options, engage, plan, and heal (if after a loss) rather than rushing back and climbing a steeper hill to the well.