School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #12
Predicting Turnout: Science or Art?
 
In Mae Jemison’s words, the difference between science and art is “…not that they are different sides of the same coin even, or even different parts of the same continuum, but rather, they are manifestations of the same thing….”  Pretty sophisticated stuff for thinking about school tax elections! Although true, school leaders need to utilize both lenses to achieve more accurate turnout predictions.

The last newsletter (Timing Matters!) dug into typical turnout in different types of elections.  The key takeaway? Use your community’s demographics to determine the best timing to be on the ballot. As a follow-up, some related thoughts on how to use science and art to achieve more accurate turnout predictions.
The scientific lens encompasses two analytics. First, look at past school tax elections focusing on apples-to-apples turnout comparisons. (i.e., comparing turnout in 2015 to 2019 or 2016 versus 2020) Apples to apples is the key – comparing turnouts in 2017 to 2020 is meaningless. Second, use available databases to analyze how the registered voter counts have changed over time – growing or shrinking?

The art of turnout predictions considers other factors affecting participation. Will another jurisdiction place a proposal on the same ballot? (e.g., new jail) What is the climate in the school community, is the school board unified, do you have a history of organized opposition? All of these factors will likely increase turnout.
Harnessing both science and art – manifestations of the same thing – is the pathway to more accurate turnout predictions in school tax elections.

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Click on the sections below to catch up on all the "School Tax Elections" entries!

#1 Laying the Foundation, part 1

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #1
​Laying the Foundation, Part 1 (published 10/06/22)
Understanding that large ships can’t turn quickly is a common analogy used by planning consultants, warning of dire consequences of investing too little time – bad plans and worse outcomes.  Tony Lucca sings this refrain in True Story: “Just hold on tight with all of your might, it takes the time it takes to get it right.” Both put exclamation marks on a precious resource within the control of school leaders – taking the time it takes to get it right!

So, how much time is enough? Best practice would recommend 15 – 18 months. The master plan should be research-based, strategic, and include specific tasks, timelines and responsibilities.  And remember, it’s not a plan unless either on paper or your hard drive.  Fifteen to eighteen months provide time to develop and then execute the plan – time to turn the ship in a direction that moves taxpayers from where they are to where they need to be to vote “yes” to higher taxes on election day. 

Planning and executing a successful school tax election is both hard and long. Your leadership team needs to determine who internally will have primary responsibility. When superintendents assume the role of general, other leadership responsibilities need to be delegated. Likewise, if the leadership role is assigned to a subordinate, superintendents still need to stay engaged since the outcome of the tax election will be on their watch. In laying this foundation for success, remember Benjamin Franklin’s forewarning: “If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!"

#2 Laying the Foundation, Part 2

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #2
​Laying the Foundation, Part 2 (published 11/02/22)
​Last month’s “Laying the Foundation” spotlighted a Tony Luca song, “Just hold on tight with all your might, it takes the time it takes to get it right.”  Starting your school tax election planning 15 – 18 months early provides time for key strategies that will make a difference on election day. 
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Conducting a communication audit is a high-return strategy. The National School Public Relations Association recommends taking a “…snapshot of your current communication efforts, the climate for communication, the issues and image perceptions you are facing, and the communication needs of target audiences.”  The scope of the audit includes everything from your logo and tagline to print and electronic communications to social media and community engagement. A top-notch communication system is foundational in support of a successful tax election. For information go to:  https://www.nspra.org/nspra-communication-audits.

A second audit focuses on dusting off (and tweaking as needed) key school board policies impacting school tax elections. Most important is your directory information policy. Some school districts identify parents’ names, addresses, and phone numbers as public data, which anyone can access (e.g., vote “yes” committee). Others restrict one or more of these important contact fields. Other policies to review include use of buildings and grounds (Can a vote “yes” committee have a table at the football game?), access to staff mailboxes, and use of a district’s auto dialing system.

A key takeaway for both audits is “earlier is better” – get them done before the spotlight is on your ballot proposal and election day.

#3 Budget Advisory Committee (BAC)

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #3
​Budget Advisory Committee (BAC) (published 12/01/22)

In the words of Charles Edwards: “The budget evolved from a management tool into an obstacle to management.”  How true within the context of public school funding – a menagerie of complex local, state, and federal revenue sources not to be out done by legalistic and restrictive budget accounting on the expenditure side.  In the context of public opinion about school budgets and tax elections, the challenge is further encumbered by mostly negative press about public schools and finances.

Another chapter in the “start planning early” school tax election manual suggests forming a Budget Advisory Committee to educate community members when important fiscal decisions need to be made. Advocates who can engage with fellow citizens, explain financial realities in common language, and advocate for solutions including school tax elections. The mission of a typical BAC would “advise, support and make recommendations to management on policies and practices related to budgets, financial priorities and the operation of the school system.”

If your BAC is going to be a resource and not an obstacle, I offer some tips and guardrails to guide the launch:

• Approach BAC as a long-range strategy
• 8 – 10 members is an effective working group
• Look for members who are well known and respected within the community
• Address diversity including gender, age, occupation, politics, geography, and race/ethnicity
• Establish staggered 3-year terms broadening participation over time and expanding the cadre of informed residents
• Remember…if it was a good idea before your school tax election, it better be a good idea after.

#4 Misery Index

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #4
​Misery Index (published 01/05/23)

Economist Arthur “Art” Okun, former Yale professor and Chairman of Economic Advisors in the late 1960’s, coined the tagline, “Misery Index” to measure broad community sentiment about the state of the economy and its threat (real or perceived) to our collective pocketbooks. To compute Okun’s Misery Index add the current inflation and unemployment rates at a moment in time. When the sum total hits 10% or higher misery abounds.

Flash  back to June of 2022…inflation rate hits 9.1% and national unemployment rate stands at 3.6% for a total of 12.7%. Translation? Give me a M…Give me an I…Give me a S…Give me an E…Give me a R…Give me a Y…What does it spell? MISERY!

Misery Index falls in the category of non-strategic factors affecting the outcome of school tax elections. It has obvious impact but is not within our control. That said, when high a Misery Index abounds, there the two key considerations that beg for your attention:

1. Can the tax election wait for better economic times? (Wait if you can!)
2. Can’t wait? Then it is even more important to carefully align content and cost of your ballot proposal with the community’s values and willingness to pay. One tool to guide that decision is a scientific, random-sample feasibility survey.

When the Misery Index is high it is critical that school leaders muster what it takes to plan and deliver an “A+” campaign and by so doing hopefully avoid a more poignant form of misery on Election Day.
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#5 Culture Wars and Split School Board

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #5
Culture Wars and Split School Boards
 
The group Bonds for the Win organizes parents challenging school boards on controversial topics ranging from mask mandates to critical race theory to sex education. They claim that when school board decisions violate oaths of office parents are entitled to compensation from what are called surety bonds. Often spawned during the 2020 presidential election, Bonds for the Win and other oppositional groups initially focused on pandemic restrictions.
As culture wars became increasingly local, Ballotpedia reported that the percentage of contested school board elections doubled from 2018 to 2021. Increasingly, slates of like-minded citizens run for school boards often resulting in deeply divided school boards. So, are split boards predictive of the passage rates of school tax elections? And what can be done when school boards are deeply divided when planning a tax election?
The first question is unfortunately easily answered:  split school boards are positively correlated with unsuccessful school referenda. When faced with this challenge, there are two strategies to consider:

1. Wait if you can – delaying the tax election provides time to win over oppositional board members or for composition of the school board to change.
2. Can’t wait? – recruit well-known, respected community members to publicly counter the oppositional school board members. (better than other school board members doing it)

More and deeper split school boards are unfortunately the short-term reality. When it comes to winning school tax elections, avoid split board decisions when you can and be strategic with responding to oppositional board members when you can’t.

#6 Managing Critical Events

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #6
Managing Critical Events
 
According to everbridge, “a critical event is a disruptive incident posing serious risk or threat to assets or people.” So, what does that have to do with postage meters and school tax elections? Keep reading….
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While a superintendent running a high-stakes tax election, I was relieved to sense the proverbial white flag of a car race – one lap to our finish line for a campaign that had been challenging but mostly clicking on all cylinders. Late in the campaign we prepared the required taxpayer mailing, ran it through the postage meter, and dropped notices off at the post office.
Oops…48 hours later my phone starting ringing. Thousands of legal mailings had run through the meter programmed for one penny less than the required postage for a first-class mailing. Taxpayers had received the District’s legal notice for the tax election with one penny due noted on the outside of their envelopes.

Unfortunately, the stamp fiasco was not my only critical event related to tax elections. (but 250 words do not allow for more amusement) So what can school leaders do manage critical events? Three things:

• Build double-check systems into your planning to eliminate avoidable mistakes
• Anticipate potential critical events and prepare related contingency plans
• Build a “yes vote” target for your campaign that includes a buffer – using the car race analogy, a shock absorber to protect the campaign’s assets. If you think you need 10,000 “yes” votes to win, set a target to find 13,000.

​_ _ _ _ happens…be prepared!

#7 Leading the Parade

​School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #7
Leading the Parade
 
Ronald Reagan hit the nail on the head: “The greatest leader is not necessarily the one who does the greatest things. He [She] is the one that gets the people to do the greatest things.”

One challenging and complex leadership responsibility of a superintendent – early in the referendum planning – is to identify optimal roles of different individuals and groups across three interdependent dimensions: those internal under the roof; those external from the community; and the critically important coordination between the two.

Sorting out internal roles includes the school board, administration, and staff. Deciding what role each should play requires both boundaries and a realistic assessment of appropriate roles. Boundaries are the campaign’s guardrails – what internal groups can do based on state law and policy. Assessment requires an honest evaluation of how the community perceives internal groups. If teachers are consistently high ranked, they should play a prominent role. If the school board has been at the center of controversy collectively spinning its wheels, not so much.

Likewise for the community. Who are broadly respected and natural leaders? Does the face of the campaign represent racial, gender, age, and political diversity? Are folks from business, private schools, and faith communities at the campaign table?
Remember, just because you are the superintendent does not always mean your ideal role is to carry the campaign flag at the front the parade. Think of your role as a conductor of an orchestra – focused on recruiting great musicians and harmonizing all facets of the campaign.

#8 Right Thing at the Wrong Time

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #8
Right Thing at the Wrong Time?
 
Joshua Harris hit the nail on the head: “The right thing at the wrong time is the wrong thing.” So, what’s that got to do with winning school tax elections? Plenty.

A suburban district closed a community-based elementary school just months before proposing to raise property taxes to fund new and upgraded schools. A medium-sized rural district voted to change elementary school attendance boundaries during the summer before a high stakes vote seeking more operating funding. An urban school district passed controversial new high school start times six months before Election Day. What do these examples have in common? The timing of controversial decisions was too close to Election Day spawning organized opposition – all three tax elections fell short of the needed “yes” votes to win.

Extending the benefit of the doubt to all three schools districts accepts that they did the right thing for students, staff, and the community. But if the timing was bad, it was the wrong thing. Successful school tax elections require long planning calendars. Long enough in this context to place a buffer of time between predictably controversial decisions and when folks vote. This critical cushion of time can be either before or after the vote – if before enough time to heal and hopefully convince some residents that it was the right decision; if the buffer is after Election Day, act but not too quickly.

Bottom line:  Control what you can and strive to avoid controversy in the months leading up to a critical vote.

#9 Demographics of ScarcitY

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #9
Demographics of Scarcity
 
According to the U.S Census Bureau, the aging of baby boomers means that by 2030 there will be more folks over 65 years old (78 million) than the total number of school-age children (76.7 million) Unfortunately, the challenge extends beyond baby boomers – in the vast majority of school districts, parents represent only 15 – 25% of all registered voters.  Adding insult to injury, this algorithm of sparsity impacts tax elections in other impactful ways:  15 – 25% is the average voter turnout of 18 – 40-year old’s in special elections; and, typically 15 – 25% of voters will not support any tax increase no matter what the amount or the purpose.

These demographic realities emphasize the urgency of knowing your audience when planning a future tax election. Fortunately, school district leaders can now harness powerful commercial databases to “slice and dice” registered voters in the search for “yes” votes. My database of choice includes powerful information on registered voters such as phone numbers, age, gender, where folks live, household income, educational attainment, and race and ethnicity. Step 2 is to merge this commercial database with the name, address, and phone number of current parents. This approach allows the district to quantify and evaluate registered voters to identify potential pockets of support.
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The challenge for school leaders – in the context of the 15 – 25% reality – is to first quantify and understand the implications of scarcity and then harness winning strategies based on solid research and best practices. More on these strategies in future newsletters.

#10 What’s with Alumni Parents?

School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #10
What’s with Alumni Parents?
 
Commencement exercises signal the end of an era for some high school parents, either because their gradate is an only child or youngest child. It is important to understand that perceptions of former parents, here labeled “alumni parents,” contrast sharply from current parents and residents who never had children enrolled. It behooves school leaders to better understand core perceptions of this demographic group and initiate planning to address them well before a future tax election.

My study of alumni parents began more than 20 years ago with a statewide survey of 380 registered voters. Half of the interviews were with current parents and half with alumni parents. The results of the survey were both challenging and surprising:

• Alumni parents vote more than the general public
• 40% of alumni parents are at least 65 and 30% are between 55 and 64
• Evaluating the direction of public schools, half of alumni parents 65+ said “right direction” while only 32% of alumni parents under 65 agreed
• Alumni parents under age 65 were more concerned about retirement than investing time and resources in public schools
• 65+ non-parents (never had a child in public schools) were more supportive than alumni parents between 55 – 65.

​The key takeaway is not to mistakenly assume that alumni parents who used to have children in your schools will automatically support your next school tax election. School leaders need to understand and engage with alumni parents as part of a long-range strategy before you need their support on election day.

#11 Timing Matters

​School Tax Elections:  Winning Strategies in 250 Words #11
Timing Matters

Joshua Harris got it right when he said, “The right thing at the wrong time is the wrong thing.” So, what does that have to do with school tax elections? Actually, quite a bit.  Case in point:  A Minnesota school district won a school tax election with 1569 “yes” votes. (57% margin) A few years later it lost with 2196 “yes” votes. The winning campaign occurred in an odd year with a low turnout. In the loss, folks voted in an even-year higher turnout environment.
In most states, school leaders have discretion to choose when to conduct their tax election. All alone on the ballot one can expect turnout in the 25 – 40% range. Even-year, non-presidential dates typically produce turnout between 50 – 65%. Districts on the ballot in presidential years can expect 60 – 75% turnout. So, what is the best timing for your school tax election?
Finding the right thing at the right time is driven by demographics of your registered voters. Public and commercial databases should be accessed to probe key questions before picking a date:

• Count of registered voters
• Expected turnout for dates under consideration
• Percentage of voters who are parents
• Breakdown of voters based on past voting frequency
• Breakdown of voters based on race/ethnicity
• Percentage of voters likely Democrats or leaning progressive as compared to Republicans or leaning conservative

Most urban districts will rely on large turnouts to win while more conservative suburban districts are more likely to score a victory in low turnout elections.

Timing matters!

#12 ​Predicting Turnout: Science or Art?

School Tax Elections: Winning Strategies in 250 Words #12
Predicting Turnout: Science or Art?
 
In Mae Jemison’s words, the difference between science and art is “…not that they are different sides of the same coin even, or even different parts of the same continuum, but rather, they are manifestations of the same thing….”  Pretty sophisticated stuff for thinking about school tax elections! Although true, school leaders need to utilize both lenses to achieve more accurate turnout predictions.

The last newsletter (Timing Matters!) dug into typical turnout in different types of elections.  The key takeaway? Use your community’s demographics to determine the best timing to be on the ballot. As a follow-up, some related thoughts on how to use science and art to achieve more accurate turnout predictions.
The scientific lens encompasses two analytics. First, look at past school tax elections focusing on apples-to-apples turnout comparisons. (i.e., comparing turnout in 2015 to 2019 or 2016 versus 2020) Apples to apples is the key – comparing turnouts in 2017 to 2020 is meaningless. Second, use available databases to analyze how the registered voter counts have changed over time – growing or shrinking?

The art of turnout predictions considers other factors affecting participation. Will another jurisdiction place a proposal on the same ballot? (e.g., new jail) What is the climate in the school community, is the school board unified, do you have a history of organized opposition? All of these factors will likely increase turnout.
Harnessing both science and art – manifestations of the same thing – is the pathway to more accurate turnout predictions in school tax elections.